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'It's crazy right now': House flipping surges to new heights in Calgary's red-hot real estate market
Bank of Canada data shows 6.5% of homes sold in metro area were resold within year A snow-covered sign advertising a house for sale in Calgary. (Robson Fletcher/CBC) House flipping in Calgary's red-hot real estate market has surged to the highest level of any major metropolitan area in the country, according to new data from the Bank of Canada. The latest statistics show 6.5 per cent of homes sold in the Calgary metropolitan area were resold within 12 months. That's the highest level in any major city at any point since at least 2014, which is as far back as the bank's public-facing data goes. The figures don't surprise Jayson Shmyrko, a Calgary-based real estate agent who specializes in helping clients buy houses and resell them for a profit. Asked what the market for flipping is like these days, he described it in one word: "Insane." "It's crazy right now," Shmyrko said. He started flipping houses himself about 20 years ago, often renovating the properties before reselling them. These days, however, he says that's not even necessary given how quickly demand — and prices — have risen. "We've got some clients that have bought properties and they just rented them out for a couple of years with the intention of doing something [to renovate them]," he said. "And now they're realizing that maybe they don't really have to do anything. Maybe they can just sell it and and make a reasonable profit." The Calgary Real Estate Board's latest monthly report shows double-digit price increases across various sectors of the city's housing market in the past year. Looking through real-estate listings and land title records dating back several years, it's not hard to find examples of major price increases across numerous Calgary communities. For instance, a bungalow in the southeast community of Acadia that sold for $432,500 in January 2022 just sold again earlier this month for $640,000. That's a 48 per cent increase in just over two years. In the northwest community of Montgomery, a bungalow sold for $325,000 in January 2020. A similar bungalow next door sold for $605,000 in January 2024, representing an 86 per cent increase in four years. Out-of-town buyers Nadine Faule is a real estate agent in Calgary whose clients include investors from other provinces looking to buy in the city. She says demand for properties in Calgary has been through the roof lately, and the supply hasn't been there to match. The result is long lineups of buyers willing to pay "top dollar" for homes, she said, which has made flipping in the city quite easy. "If you have 30 buyers for every property that comes on the market and people are paying a stupid amount … then if you just hang on for a few months, without even doing any work, you can resell them and make money," Faule said. While some of her clients are starting to hesitate at the asking prices at the higher end of the market, she said the prices at the lower end, especially for condos, are still extremely attractive — especially to prospective buyers who are used to the prices in Vancouver and Toronto. "Like, anything under under $400,000 in Calgary right now is getting a stupid amount of competitive offers," she said. "I'll sell a one-bedroom condo for $30,000 above asking price in like one day." Other buyers feel the squeeze For local non-investor buyers, however, the recent trends have made navigating Calgary's real-estate market challenging. Max Maxwell is 38. He and his partner got married last summer and started looking for a condo together, but he said the hunt quickly became "disheartening" as property after property was snapped up. "Just trying to even look at places was impossible," he said. "We literally had 11 different showings of things that just hit the market cancel out on us because it had sold out from under us." They finally managed to make a purchase by taking advantage of a brief lull in activity during the Christmas holidays. "We happened to view something three days before Christmas," he said. "So instead of six offers on the first day, we only had one other offer to compete against." Duncan Stirk had been planning to buy a home in Calgary later this year, but has been watching the market with trepidation. Stirk says he's not a typical first-time buyer: he's in his 50s and has rented his whole life, largely due to a job that has taken him to different cities in several countries over the years, and plans to buy a home in cash, with no mortgage. He last lived in Victoria, B.C., but found real estate prices there too expensive and decided to come back to Calgary as a result. But he's now "quite concerned" about the trajectory of prices here. "That may totally deter me [from buying]," he said. "If it really is that tough, well, then I'm just going to wait. I'm not going to be in a place of desperation to buy, if the market's not right." Maxwell counts himself lucky for being able to buy a home in Calgary these days. He and his partner also saved up and purchased in cash, but he says lots of other people his age and younger are struggling to get a foot in the door of the current market. "I mean, there's an entire generation just utterly missing what feels like a milestone for a lot of us, you know?"
Toronto's market for new homes still stuck in 'abnormal' winter slump
Buyers remain on the sidelines and developers, too, are waiting to launch projects, leading a possible supply crunch down the road, says homebuilders' association. There were 578 newly built homes sold in the GTA last month — falling 68 per cent below the 10-year average, but down just three per cent from last year, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association. While Toronto's home resale market has begun to heat up, buyers eyeing newly built homes are still holding their breath for the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates this spring, according to a new report from the Building Industry and Land Development Association. And a drop in pre-market condominium sales in January could signal a looming lack of supply once the market regains speed, says Justin Sherwood, BILD’s senior vice-president of communications and stakeholder relations. "It is actually going to make the crunch worse down the road," he said. "I think it's going to get painful, because as buyers return to the markets, there'll be less supply out there." There were 578 newly built homes sold in the GTA last month — falling 68 per cent below the 10-year average, but down just three per cent from last year. New single family homes, 345 of which were sold in January, made up the majority of sales. This marked an 92 per cent increase from January 2023, which saw a 10-year low. Just 233 new condominiums were sold in the GTA last month, a 44 per cent decrease from the same month in 2023. Both new condominiums and single family home sales fell far below the 10-year average, by 60 per cent and 78 per cent respectively. "It's pretty much more of the same" of the winter market slump that began in the fall, said Sherwood, who noted the situation is unlikely to change until buyers see an indication that the Bank of Canada will lower its key rate. He noted that inventory is holding at a consistent rate, with 19,829 total remaining new units. Of the existing new units, however, there are few completed new condominiums available: only 599 units, compared to 6,162 under construction and 9,916 pre-construction. "It's not just buyers that are waiting to see," said Sherwood. "I think builders are also holding off on launching into projects to see when demand is coming back." Traditionally, he says the spring is the strongest time of the year for new home sales. He believes this will hold true this year, saying he anticipates the market will see renewed force if interest rates begin to come down. Until then, Sherwood says sales of new homes will keep reflecting the "half market" speed not seen in the GTA since the early 1990s. "It is abnormal, but then again, interest rates haven't been this high in 30 years either," he said.
Canada's extension of ban on foreign real estate buyers labelled political, not practical
Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets workers as he tours new construction at Edgemont Flats housing complex during an announcement of new funding for housing in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada February 21, 2024 OTTAWA/TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada's move to keep foreigners out of its property market for two more years will do little to alleviate acute housing shortages, as non-residents were never the main driver fuelling property demand, economists and realtors say. The surprise announcement on a Sunday morning last month to extend the ban that was first imposed in 2022 has been labelled by some as a political stunt to quell opposition pressure and show that the government is taking action on the property market, they added. Housing affordability is emerging as a hot-button issue ahead of next year's election, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's main opponent, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, has blamed the Liberal government for the crisis. The federal government has responded with a series of measures to boost supplies over the past year, but those actions won't provide immediate relief. The extension of the ban 11 months before its expiry came as Trudeau's public support tumbled to its lowest point in years. "The politics is more important than the impact on the economics," said Craig Alexander, president of Alexander Economic Views, an independent economic research organization. Foreign ownership of houses in Canada has dropped to a single percentage point from 2-3% two years ago, economists and realtors estimate in the absence of any official data beyond 2021. The numbers hovered in the same range even before the pandemic, data from Statistics Canada showed. While foreign buyers have been blamed for runaway housing prices in countries like Australia, the U.K. and New Zealand, no nation has taken a hard stand by banning foreign ownership like Canada. The Finance Ministry last month said that foreign ownership had fuelled worries about Canadians being priced out of the housing market and increased housing affordability concerns. The government was not immediately available for comment. Economists and realtors say the solution is to increase the pace of building new houses then sustain it. Trudeau has admitted that the current crisis is largely due to the lack of houses being built amid a surge in population, and has recently hit the brakes on immigration. Since Trudeau came to power in 2015, Canada has welcomed 2.5 million new permanent residents, driving the country's population to a record 40 million, while 1.8 million homes were built in the same period. Canada's benchmark house price has risen by 30%, official data show. Canada's home-building pace has been similar to that of Australia, another country favoured by immigrants, but Canada's increase in population has been double that of Australia. To fix the housing shortage, Canada needs to build 315,000 new residences every year between now and 2030 to keep up with the rising population, according to Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC. "That's more than a third above the pace of housing completions in the past few years," he said, adding that an extension of the ban will be a "drop in the bucket." Realtors also say foreigners scooped up prime and top-end residential units in the bustling localities of Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. Hence, the extension of the ban will not increase supply for first-time home buyers, who account for close to half of all people buying houses, realtors say. To be sure, house prices in Canada have eased 1.3% in the last year and a half, but that's largely due to the record pace of interest rate increases by the Bank of Canada. The Canadian Real Estate Association called the ban completely unnecessary. There is "no analysis, evidence or data" to prove that foreign ownership is creating the bubble, CEO Janice Myers said. "It's a purely xenophobic measure aimed at politically scapegoating foreign buyers that were an immaterial share of home purchases," Derek Holt, head of capital markets at Scotiabank, said in a note.
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