Canadian real estate seems to be on the path to recovery, with interest rates falling, house prices down from their peaks, and affordability slowly returning. The government is actively addressing housing issues, but the big question is: when will the market truly recover? It’s felt more like a long, drawn-out road trip than a clear comeback. Buyers have been waiting on the sidelines, hoping for the right moment to jump in—either waiting for prices to dip further or hoping for a sign that the market has bottomed out. Ironically, those waiting for the “bottom” may have missed it, as the market has seen steady price increases in recent months. While September seemed subdued, recent data shows signs of a market turnaround. Home sales increased by 2.8% in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth. Lower rates, more buying power, and new mortgage policies have drawn sidelined buyers back into the market, with strong activity in major cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal. However, this spike in activity raises some questions: is it a real recovery, or just a temporary boost driven by policy changes? The market still feels relatively flat compared to the highs of the pandemic, and there are signs that the recovery remains fragile. Though prices are rising, they’re still lower than a year ago, and the supply of homes remains tight, with fewer listings coming to market. Looking ahead, much depends on the upcoming spring market. While optimism is building, potential challenges like a possible recession and rising unemployment could still slow the recovery. The key will be whether the momentum from the past few months can carry through. In the meantime, the dream of homeownership is still tough for many, especially first-time buyers, who face rising prices and fewer available homes. For sellers, however, the market is leaning in their favor, with competition among buyers growing as inventory remains low. In short, Canadian real estate is showing early signs of recovery, but it’s unclear whether this momentum will last or if it’s just a brief reaction to lower rates and policy changes. The spring market will be a critical test.

  Canadian Home Sales Keep Rising in November Home sales in Canada continued to rise in November, up 2.8% from October and 18.4% higher than in May, before the first interest rate cut. The boost was driven by gains in Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Greater Toronto, Montreal, and some smaller cities in Alberta and Ontario. "Sales not only increased, but tighter market conditions also pushed prices up at the national level for the first time in over a year and a half," said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. "With the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut and changes to mortgage rules, we might see a more active winter market than usual." November Highlights: National sales rose 2.8% month-over-month. Sales were 26% higher than November 2023. New listings were down 0.5% month-over-month. The HPI increased by 0.6% from October but is down 1.2% year-over-year. The average sale price rose 7.4% from last year. The sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 59.2%, up from 57.3% in October, indicating a shift toward a more balanced market. At the end of November, there were over 160,000 properties listed for sale—8.9% more than last year, but still below the typical level for the season. Inventory dropped to 3.7 months, the lowest in 14 months. The national average home price in November was $694,411, up 7.4% from last year.

  Home sales in Vancouver saw a nice boost in November, thanks to a jump in new listings that helped keep prices steady, according to the local real estate board. The composite benchmark price for November was $1,172,100, which is slightly down by 0.9% compared to last year and basically the same as October. Real estate agents in Greater Vancouver reported a 28.1% increase in the number of homes sold compared to November 2023. With a more balanced market, many buyers took advantage of the opportunity. In total, there were 2,181 sales in November, which, while still 12.8% below the 10-year average, is an improvement over the 1,702 sales from the same month last year. There were also 3,725 new listings in November, a 10.6% increase from 2023 and 5.4% above the seasonal average for the past decade. Overall, the number of active listings in the region reached 13,245, up by 21.2% from last year. While prices remained stable last month, if the supply of homes doesn’t keep up with rising demand, buyers could face higher prices in 2025. For now, though, the market seems to be holding steady.

The Canadian housing market is set to find its footing in 2025, as lower interest rates and new lending rules are expected to attract more buyers. The real estate company predicts that the average home price in Canada will rise by 6% year-over-year, reaching $856,692 by the fourth quarter of 2025, aligning with long-term trends. Single-family detached homes are expected to see a 7% price increase, hitting a median value of $900,833, while condos are forecast to grow by 3.5%, reaching $605,993. "There’s a growing backlog of buyers ready to enter the market, and upcoming changes to mortgage lending rules will help boost Canadians' borrowing power," says Phil Soper, President and CEO of Royal LePage. Regional Price Trends: A Strong Demand Across Canada The forecast suggests price growth in major Canadian markets, with Quebec City leading the way with an 11% price increase. Edmonton and Regina are expected to see a 9% gain each. Greater Montreal is predicted to rise by 6%, while the Greater Toronto Area is projected to grow by a more moderate 5%. Metro Vancouver is expected to see a 4% increase. Good News for First-Time Buyers: New Lending Rules Starting December 15, 2024, new mortgage rules are expected to help first-time buyers and those purchasing new homes. These changes include eligibility for 30-year amortizations on insured mortgages and an increase in the mortgage insurance cap from $1 million to $1.5 million. First-time buyers will be the main beneficiaries of these changes, as they’ll be able to borrow more with a smaller down payment, bringing them closer to owning their first home. This will likely encourage more builders to start new projects, which is exactly what the market needs. What to Expect in 2025 The first quarter of 2025 is expected to bring the strongest gains, driven by an early spring market. National home prices are projected to rise 2% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025. After that, growth is expected to slow slightly, with 1.5% gains in the second and third quarters, and 1% in the final quarter of the year. 2025 will bring a sense of normalcy to the market. After a few years of unusual ups and downs, the signs point to a return to stability next year. The recent shift in the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy—from focusing on fighting inflation to boosting the economy—has contributed to this optimism.

  As we head into winter, Calgary’s housing market is following typical seasonal trends, with slower activity compared to the fall, but year-over-year demand remains strong. November saw a mix of increased sales in detached, semi-detached, and row homes, though apartment condo sales slowed. Overall, 1,797 sales in November were on par with last year and 20% above long-term averages. Detached Homes:Sales for homes priced above $600,000 are rising, while lower-priced homes face limited supply. Although inventory improved, 85% of homes for sale were priced over $600,000, creating varied market conditions. The benchmark price for detached homes was $750,100, up over 7% from last year. Semi-Detached Homes:There were 173 semi-detached sales in November, up nearly 5% from last year, supported by more listings and higher supply. With two months of supply, conditions still favor sellers, particularly for homes below $700,000. The benchmark price was $675,100, nearly 8% higher than last year. Row Homes:Sales of row homes showed continued strength, rising nearly 3% year-to-date. Despite inventory improvements, supply remains tight with about two months of available homes. The benchmark price was $454,200, up nearly 7% from last year. Apartment Condominiums:Sales for apartment condos slowed from last year’s record, but still remained well above long-term trends. Increased listings pushed supply levels higher, easing price pressure. The benchmark price was $337,800, up 9% from last year. Regional Highlights: Airdrie: Supply levels are returning to pre-2020 norms, with a 4% increase in the benchmark price, now at $543,300. Cochrane: A surge in new listings drove strong sales, with the benchmark price at $568,600, up 4% from last year. Okotoks: A dip in new listings kept inventory low, with prices rising 6%, bringing the benchmark price to $624,000. Overall, the market remains active, though conditions vary by property type and price range.

Re/Max Canada’s 2025 Housing Market Outlook Report predicts that interest rate cuts and growing consumer confidence will likely spur more activity in the market. However, with demand outpacing supply, the national average residential sale price is expected to rise by about 5%. The report surveyed 37 regions across Canada and found that sales activity is expected to increase in 33 of these areas, with some regions seeing growth of up to 25%. Re/Max agents noted that first-time homebuyers, who are driving market activity in 81% of the surveyed regions, are likely to benefit the most from these market conditions. Regional Insights: Seller’s Market Ahead The report predicts that 44% of Canadian housing markets will shift in favor of sellers in 2025. This trend will be especially strong in Western Canada, where residential prices are expected to rise by 3% to 10%. For example: Edmonton: Prices are expected to increase by 10%, driven by homebuyers from Calgary looking for more affordable options in Edmonton. Greater Vancouver Area: Prices are projected to rise by 7%, with sales growth of up to 20%. Ontario: The province’s largest housing market is also expected to see price increases, ranging from a slight 0.1% in Toronto to 10% in Simcoe County. In Ontario’s urban centers, like Toronto, Mississauga, and Kitchener-Waterloo, market conditions are expected to remain balanced. However, areas like Sudbury and York Region are likely to shift in favor of sellers. In Atlantic Canada, price increases are expected in every surveyed market, with notable rises of 8% in Truro & Colchester, Nova Scotia, and St. John’s, Newfoundland. Key Trends for 2025: Inventory, Buyer Demographics, and Affordability Re/Max brokers and agents highlighted several key demographics shaping the market in 2025, including first-time homebuyers, move-up buyers, and downsizing retirees. There’s strong demand for smaller, affordable homes like townhomes and bungalows, while move-up buyers are seeking larger properties. Affordability and inventory will continue to be challenges in many regions, especially in competitive markets like Toronto and Vancouver.

The Minimum Qualifying Rate (MQR) for uninsured mortgages is a stress test that helps lenders ensure borrowers can still afford their mortgage payments, even if their financial situation changes (like a job loss, higher living costs, or rising interest rates). This requirement, set by OSFI, helps reduce the risk of mortgage defaults and protects both borrowers and Canada’s financial system. How the MQR is Set We determine the MQR based on data from financial institutions, housing market conditions, and economic trends. We also consult with the Bank of Canada and the Department of Finance. The MQR is reviewed at least once a year. The Buffer and the Floor The MQR includes two components: The Buffer: A 2% margin to help borrowers absorb financial setbacks. The Floor: Set at 5.25%, it accounts for potential risks in the broader economy. Stress Testing and Guideline B-20 Guideline B-20 sets out the rules for federally regulated lenders when offering uninsured mortgages, including applying the MQR to most new loans. However, it doesn’t apply to “straight switches” (when borrowers switch lenders without changing the loan amount or amortization period). Loan-to-Income (LTI) Limit and MQR The LTI limit is another tool to manage high levels of household debt and reduce lending risks. OSFI will continue to assess the role of the MQR after the LTI framework is in place.

  Homeownership is feeling increasingly out of reach for many Canadians, according to a recent survey from Habitat for Humanity Canada. A significant 80% of Canadians now view buying a home as a luxury, and 88% of renters feel that the dream of owning a home has turned into a distant goal. This survey, which marks the third annual affordable housing assessment, highlights the far-reaching effects of Canada’s housing crisis. An impressive 82% of Canadians expressed serious concerns about how this crisis is affecting health and well-being, while 78% recognize that homeownership plays a crucial role in the widening wealth gap in the country. The results showcase a shared worry across different age groups, particularly concerning younger Canadians who face the toughest housing challenges. Addressing the Shrinking Middle Class The survey data indicates that the shortage of affordable housing is fragmenting communities and putting the middle class at risk, with 82% of respondents expressing worry about this group’s future. More than half of Canadians are concerned about compromising on essential needs like food, education, and everyday living expenses just to make housing payments. Additionally, 41% feel overwhelmed by the stress of not being able to purchase a home. Rethinking Life Milestones for Younger Generations The ongoing housing crisis is prompting younger Canadians to reconsider their life plans. Two-thirds of Gen Z and nearly half of Millennials are contemplating delaying family plans due to the high costs of suitable housing. About 40% have noticed fewer job opportunities, having had to relocate to more affordable areas. A noteworthy 29% of Millennials and 25% of Gen Z are even considering moving abroad for more affordable housing options. Moreover, 73% of Gen Z respondents are anxious about saving enough for a down payment. Despite the growing challenges, Canadians remain optimistic about homeownership, with 87% believing it provides stability, and 81% viewing it as a pathway to a better future for their children. A Call for Action As Canada grapples with its housing crisis, the survey reveals a strong desire for political action. Seventy-five percent of Canadians feel that housing policy should go beyond political affiliations, advocating for a collaborative approach to addressing the crisis. Yet, 68% express doubts about the federal government’s ability to achieve its goal of building 3.87 million new homes by 2031. Canadians are calling for policy changes that reduce taxes and fees for first-time buyers, promote affordable homeownership, and convert unused spaces into housing.  

    The housing market saw a bit of a shift in October, with sales of higher-priced homes (those over $600,000) helping to balance out slower sales at the lower end. Overall, 2,174 homes were sold in October, a nice bump from September, and 24% higher than the usual trend for the month. “Housing demand has remained steady as we head into the final quarter of the year, with October sales showing an increase from September,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “That said, the market would likely have seen even more activity if there were more options for buyers looking for lower-priced homes. While supply has improved compared to last year’s very low levels, most of the new inventory is in the higher price ranges. This has created a more balanced market for those looking at pricier homes, but conditions are still quite competitive in the lower- to mid-priced segments.” The past six months have seen a steady rise in new listings, helping to increase the overall inventory in the city. By October, there were 4,966 homes available for sale—quite an improvement over the near-record low of 3,205 homes available last year. While inventory levels are now getting closer to historical norms, the makeup of those listings has shifted, with nearly half of all available homes now priced above $600,000. These supply adjustments are helping the market move away from the tight conditions of earlier this year, but it's still a bit of a seller's market overall. With just 2.3 months of available inventory and a 67% sales-to-new listings ratio, the market is still competitive. However, the months of supply vary quite a bit depending on the price range and type of property. For example, there’s less than two months of supply for detached homes priced under $700,000, while homes priced over $1 million have more than three months of supply. This means price pressures are different depending on what buyers are looking for. In terms of prices, the residential benchmark price in October was $592,500—up more than 4% from last year, and about 8% higher on average compared to the start of 2023. While prices dipped slightly from September due to seasonal factors, seasonally adjusted prices have remained relatively steady.

  If you've been eyeing a luxury home in Toronto or Vancouver, the latest market conditions are some of the most favorable since 2017, according to experts at Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. In their Fall 2024 State of Luxury Report, they highlight a shift in Canada's luxury real estate market, where key cities are seeing more balanced conditions for buyers than in recent years. In both Vancouver and Toronto, the luxury condo market has become more buyer-friendly, with rising inventory outpacing demand. Even the luxury single-family home market, usually known for its fierce competition, has started to tilt in favor of buyers in these traditionally hot markets. This shift is creating opportunities for those looking to invest in high-end properties in cities that are typically known for their scarcity of listings and high prices. Vancouver: A Quiet Quarter, But Opportunities for Buyers Vancouver had a slower third quarter, with luxury sales dipping, largely due to economic and political uncertainties, high living costs, and some concerns about safety in certain neighborhoods. In fact, sales of homes priced over $4 million dropped 13% compared to last year, though ultra-luxury homes (over $10 million) held steady at four sales. September was quieter still, with a sharp 31% decline in $1 million+ sales. But there’s a silver lining for buyers—especially in the condo market. With more listings available, it’s now a buyer's market, and the summer saw a notable 19% drop in condo sales over $1 million compared to the previous year. Calgary: Luxury Market Booms Across the Rockies, Calgary’s luxury real estate market is thriving. The city continues to attract both locals and newcomers, with the population booming due to strong migration—over 89,000 people moved to Alberta in the first half of 2024 alone. This influx, coupled with Calgary's relatively affordable luxury market, has fueled a 46% year-over-year rise in luxury home sales over $1 million in the first half of 2024. Even as the market heats up, there's still room for growth, with demand continuing for single-family homes, especially those priced over $4 million. While condo sales are slower, the overall luxury market continues to build momentum. Toronto & the Greater Toronto Area: A Market in Balance In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), increasing population levels have helped stabilize the luxury market. Sellers are more willing to price properties realistically, which has made for a more balanced dynamic between buyers and sellers. In Toronto, sales of homes priced over $1 million dropped 7% this summer, but there was a notable increase in $4 million+ homes, which rose 18% year-over-year. The luxury condo market in Toronto saw a quiet quarter, with fewer sales in the $1 million+ range, though $4 million+ and $10 million+ properties showed some improvement. Single-family homes remain in high demand, with properties in the $4 million+ range seeing the biggest gains. What’s Next? Experts predict that the luxury real estate market in Canada will remain stable for the foreseeable future. However, rising building costs, limited construction, and population growth may lead to increased competition down the road. For now, buyers are encouraged to take advantage of the favorable conditions we’re seeing today—especially if you're in the market for a top-tier home. Whether you’re eyeing a sleek condo in Vancouver, a stately mansion in Toronto, or a stylish single-family home in Calgary, the fall of 2024 offers some of the best conditions for purchasing luxury real estate in years. It’s an exciting time for buyers and investors alike.

If you're thinking about helping your child buy a home, it's important to approach it carefully to ensure everything goes smoothly for everyone involved. Here are six key things to consider: Communicate with the Whole Family Before you step in to help with a down payment, it’s important to talk openly with all your children (if you have more than one) and any other family members who might be impacted. This can prevent misunderstandings or hurt feelings later. Avoid Extra Costs with Mortgage Insurance If you're able to help your child reach the 20% down payment mark, you can save them from paying for mortgage default insurance. The closer their down payment is to 20%, the lower the insurance premiums will be—and often, the cost of insurance is added to the mortgage, which increases their monthly payment. Think About Taxes If you don’t have cash sitting around and need to sell an investment to help with the down payment, be mindful of any taxes you might owe. If you sell an asset that’s appreciated in value, you could face capital gains tax. This means you may end up giving less to your child than you originally intended, so it’s good to plan ahead. Keep Things Fair Helping one child with a down payment could create tension with your other kids, especially if you don’t offer them the same support. It’s important to think about whether your other children will feel left out or if they might need help as well. Clear communication and fairness are key—this is where talking openly with your children about your plans can help avoid any issues. Plan for the Unexpected Unfortunately, relationships sometimes don’t last. If your child is buying a home with a partner, it’s worth considering a legal agreement that specifies what happens to the down payment or any gifts in the event of a breakup. This can protect both your child and the money you're contributing. Small Contributions Can Add Up Remember, helping your child doesn’t always mean handing over a big lump sum. You can contribute gradually by adding to their first home savings account or tax-free savings account over time. These smaller, ongoing contributions can add up and make a big difference when the time comes to buy. By considering these points, you can help your child in a way that’s thoughtful, fair, and financially responsible for everyone involved.

Calgary Real Estate Market Overview – October 2024 Average Home Prices Calgary's home prices have been on the rise for the past four years and are now starting to stabilize, holding steady near their peak. In October 2024, the average home price in Calgary was $620,946, up 14% compared to October 2023, but 2.2% lower than the previous month. Detached Homes: Average price was $802,152, showing a 10% increase year-over-year, but a slight 2.2% decrease from the previous month. Semi-Detached Homes: Average price hit $702,226, reflecting 14% growth from last year and a 4.4% monthly increase. Townhouses: The average price was $454,083, up 6.3% from October 2023, but 2.9% lower than in September 2024. Apartments: The average price reached $351,998, a 9.4% rise from last year and a 1.2% increase from the previous month. It's important to note that average prices can sometimes mask the full extent of price changes because when buyers face affordability challenges due to higher home prices or rising mortgage rates, they tend to shift toward more affordable property types. Luxury homes also play a role in skewing average prices upward, as fluctuations in their sales volume can cause notable shifts. In terms of property preferences, over the past few years, there’s been a shift in the market toward condos and townhouses, while demand for detached homes has decreased.   Sales and Benchmark Prices The benchmark price for homes in Calgary rose 4.5% compared to last year, now sitting at $592,500. However, it dropped 0.7% compared to last month. In October 2024, 2,174 homes were sold, which is slightly up by 0.1% compared to October 2023. There were 3,264 new listings, which is a 22% increase year-over-year (YoY). With a 67% sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR), Calgary is currently in a seller’s market again, after a brief period of balanced conditions. The market has also seen a substantial increase in inventory, which is up 55% from last year, with 4,997 units available for sale. This brings the current inventory to 2.3 months of sales, up slightly from the previous months.   Property-Specific Details: Detached Homes: The benchmark price for a detached home in Calgary was $753,900, reflecting an 8.1% increase YoY, though it dropped slightly by 0.4% from last month. Detached home sales decreased 10% from last year, with 1,071 homes sold. Semi-Detached Homes: The benchmark price grew by 8% YoY to $677,000, with a 0.2% drop from August. Sales of semi-detached homes increased 6.2% YoY to 190 units sold. Townhouses: Benchmark prices for townhouses rose 8.1% from last year but fell 0.6% month-over-month to $456,600. Row house sales dropped 6.1% YoY, with 353 units sold. Apartments: The benchmark price for apartments increased by 11.4% YoY to $341,700 but dropped 1% from September. Apartment sales decreased by 13% YoY, with 560 units sold. Median Prices Looking at median prices, which offer a different view of market trends: The median home price in Calgary rose 16% YoY to $575,000, with a 1.8% increase from September. Detached homes had a median price of $699,800, reflecting a 7.7% annual increase. Semi-detached homes reached a median of $623,875, up 16% compared to last year. Row houses had a median price of $437,500 (+4.2% YoY), while apartments reached a median of $315,000, marking a 7.7% increase YoY. Market Context Compared to other major cities like Toronto and Vancouver, Calgary remains much more affordable. However, it’s slightly less affordable than Montreal. Over the past four years, Calgary home prices have jumped 41%, which has reduced affordability for many buyers and renters. While this may slow economic growth and productivity in the region, there are plans in the works to relax zoning restrictions and allow for more housing development, which could help maintain Calgary’s appeal for those looking to live and work here. Supply and Demand Calgary’s population has been growing steadily, with projections indicating an increase of around 55,500 people annually. This growth requires roughly 20,600 new homes each year, but new construction has been averaging only 15,500 homes per year. This gap between demand and supply is contributing to the pressure on home prices. Macro-Economic Trends Looking at long-term trends, Calgary's real estate market has seen a 33% increase in home prices over the last decade, outpacing inflation (28% rise in the Consumer Price Index). In contrast, home prices in cities like Toronto and Montreal have skyrocketed by 100% and 97%, respectively, over the same period. Despite the rise, Calgary’s housing market has remained relatively affordable, and with moderate growth of 2.9% per year over the past decade, it appears that there are fewer risks of a sudden downturn. With its strong economy, high incomes, and abundance of natural resources, Calgary remains an attractive destination for both Canadians and newcomers from around the world.

New Home Sales in Toronto Stay Low in September, But There's Hope for Buyers! New home sales in the Greater Toronto Area saw a slowdown in September, but a recent report hint that now could be a great time for buyers! The Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) shared its latest findings on Monday, revealing that there were 591 new home sales last month—a significant 69% drop compared to last year. Breaking it down, 344 of these sales were for single-family homes, like detached, linked, semi-detached houses, and townhouses, which is a 41% decrease from September 2023. Condominiums also faced a tough month, with only 247 units sold down 81% from the previous year. Despite this sluggish performance, Edward Jegg, research manager with Altus Group (BILD’s new home market insights provider), remains optimistic. He noted, “Even with three consecutive rate cuts from the Bank of Canada, GTA new home sales have struggled this September.” Since the central bank began lowering its policy interest rate in June, from 5% to 3.75%, the market is showing signs of readiness for buyers. “We now have a market with plenty of inventory, dropping prices, and an additional 50 basis point cut. It’s time for buyers to make their move!” Jegg encouraged. The report also highlighted that the remaining inventory of new homes has slightly increased, reaching nearly 22,000 units—this includes about 17,500 condos and close to 4,500 single-family homes. While the inventory level remains high at 13.8 months based on average sales, it reflects a trend seen since autumn 2023. However, the longer sales stay low, the greater the potential impact on future housing starts in the GTA, which could lead to inventory shortages and rising prices down the line. The report indicates that today’s market conditions might set the stage for a future supply crunch. Lastly, despite the slower sales, benchmark prices for new homes saw a slight dip last month. The average price for condos is now $1.025 million (down 1% year-over-year), while single-family homes have decreased to $1.565 million (down 0.1%). So, while the market is a bit slow, there are definitely opportunities for buyers to explore!

BMO Highlights Potential Correction in Canadian Real Estate Prices Due to Immigration Changes This week, BMO Capital Markets shared important insights on Canadian real estate, noting that Canada is taking significant steps to improve housing affordability by reducing its population growth. The bank has previously highlighted that plans to triple new home construction to boost affordability may not have been entirely realistic. With the acknowledgment of these challenges, BMO predicts a positive shift toward more affordable housing as construction efforts align with a smaller population. Changes to Immigration Could Impact Real Estate Prices Canada is taking a breather on immigration after realizing that previous strategies may not have worked as hoped. Following this year’s reduction in the number of temporary residents, including foreign students, the country is now focusing on stabilizing housing markets through a gradual population decrease. For the next couple of years, expect a dip in population growth as part of an effort to bring balance to housing after ambitious homebuilding promises fell short. Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO, shared, “We've voiced our concerns for years about the narrative that Canada needs to dramatically ramp up housing construction. While it wasn’t entirely feasible, the real issue lay in the demand curve going out of control.” Kavcic emphasizes that for a long time, there weren't significant supply issues; instead, demand was influenced by policies intended to boost home prices, often causing confusion about affordability. As changes to immigration targets were announced recently, he explains that this represents a second factor affecting demand, following the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes that addressed speculative buying. With expected population growth slowing from over 3% to nearly zero, the impact on housing costs, particularly rents, is anticipated to be swift. Understanding the Demand-Focused Approach to Housing Issues Policymakers are recognizing that the challenges in the housing market are more about demand than supply. Initially, they pointed to regulatory obstacles as the cause of rising home prices. However, lifting these regulations led to higher land values but fewer new builds. The government invested heavily through loans and stimulus to encourage developers, but results were minimal.  

Exciting news for Edmonton real estate! As the Bank of Canada has cut its key interest rate for the fourth time this year, real estate broker-owner shares some friendly advice: "If you’re thinking about jumping into the market, it might be a good idea to find a property now. Prices could rise next year!" This recent cut, which lowered the rate to 3.75 percent— the biggest drop of the year—could bring a flurry of activity to an already vibrant Edmonton housing market. While this is great for potential buyers, it also means the commercial real estate sector might see a boost as well. According to the Bank of Canada, this decision aims to support economic growth and keep inflation in check. They’ve hinted at the possibility of more cuts in the future, depending on how the economy performs. However, it’s worth noting that inventory levels are quite low, with only three months of supply available in Edmonton. This tight market means sellers have an advantage, but the new interest rate could either spark a buying frenzy or lead some buyers to hold off and wait for even better rates. Overall, while the lower interest rates give buyers more spending power, the limited housing supply might counteract some of those benefits, pushing prices up. With just one more interest rate announcement scheduled for December 11, 2024, it’s definitely an exciting time to keep an eye on the Edmonton real estate market!

Exciting News: Alberta Housing Starts on the Rise! This year is already shaping up to be a record-breaker for housing starts in Edmonton and throughout Alberta, reaching levels not seen since 2007! The City of Edmonton proudly announced it has exceeded its 2023 goal with a remarkable 10,004 housing starts from January to September, surpassing last year's total of 9,665. This great news comes thanks to some smart changes to regulatory and planning processes, including a significant reduction in red tape, which has allowed for quicker approvals and more homes being built. While Edmonton's housing starts have jumped over 45% from last year, Calgary is currently leading the province with over 17,000 starts—a 23% increase from last year. Alberta Community Services Minister Jason Nixon commented, “Our efforts are truly making a difference in increasing housing supply and giving Albertans the homes they need!” Overall, the province has seen over 33,500 housing starts in the first nine months of the year, compared to nearly 25,000 last year. According to an ATB report, housing starts are at their highest since 2007! The report noted that Alberta's housing starts are up 44% this year, while the rest of Canada is seeing a slight decline. This positive trend is also bringing good news for renters, as nearly 10,000 apartment units were started in the first half of 2024, breaking a record from 1977. Christel Kjenner, director of the Housing Action Team in Edmonton, explained that it's important to build a variety of housing options. “To meet the growing demand, we need not just more homes, but different types as well,” she said. “It’s exciting to see an increase in secondary suites and backyard homes, which now represent 24% of residential building permits issued this year!”

If you’re thinking about stepping into the Canadian real estate market, understanding the current forecast is key. It might seem complex, but I’m here to break it down for you in a clear and engaging way. Let’s dive in! What’s Happening in the Canadian Housing Market? The Canadian real estate market has been quite a ride recently! With interest rates going up, things have cooled off a bit. However, there’s good news on the horizon. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast, and it offers some intriguing insights. While we may not be experiencing a market boom, we’re also not in a downward spiral. It’s a more nuanced situation than you might read in the headlines, and much of it hinges on interest rate developments. One major factor at play is the Bank of Canada's interest rate policy. Their decisions directly affect mortgage rates, which in turn influence affordability and buyer interest. The expectation of rate cuts is critical: if rates drop sooner than expected, we could see a quicker rebound in market activity. On the flip side, if cuts are slower, we might be in for a longer stabilization period. This is something to keep an eye on! What to Expect in the Canadian Real Estate Market for 2024 and 2025 CREA's Updated Forecast: A Closer Look CREA recently revised its forecasts for 2024 and 2025, revealing a market that’s looking more stable than explosive. This is quite different from earlier predictions, which anticipated a surge in activity once rates began to fall. The updated outlook suggests a slower recovery than initially thought, with a more noticeable rebound expected in the second quarter of 2025. Many potential buyers have decided to hold off until interest rates improve further. Regional Breakdown: A Tale of Two Markets The national statistics are just the beginning; significant regional differences are also on the horizon, showcasing the diversity of the Canadian real estate landscape. Stronger Markets: Alberta: This province is on a growth trajectory, fueled by a strong economy and a thriving energy sector. Forecasts predict an 8.4% increase in sales for 2024 and a 6.8% rise in average prices for 2025, reflecting Alberta's ongoing economic strength. Quebec: Quebec is projected to see impressive sales growth of 15.7% in 2024, followed by another 4.7% in 2025, indicating that its real estate market has solid momentum. Markets with Slower Growth: British Columbia: Even though British Columbia generally has a strong economy, its real estate market is expected to grow at a slower pace due to higher interest rates impacting affordability. Ontario: This large province is also looking at modest growth, especially in the Greater Toronto Area, as it grapples with the ongoing effects of higher interest rates. Other provinces like Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador are expected to see moderate growth in sales and prices, but not quite at the pace of the stronger markets. Factors Beyond CREA’s Forecast to Keep in Mind While CREA's forecast provides valuable insights, it’s important to remember that these are just projections. Several factors can influence how the market performs: Interest Rate Changes: The Bank of Canada’s decisions are crucial, and unexpected changes could significantly sway buyer behavior and market activity. Economic Conditions: A broader economic downturn might dampen demand, whereas strong economic growth could boost it. Government Policies: Any changes to mortgage rules, taxes, or housing policies could reshape the market’s path. Supply and Demand: Local imbalances between the supply of homes and buyer demand will continue to impact prices in various areas.  

Core Demand: What’s Driving the Market? Population Growth: This is all about how many people are moving to the area. On average, about 2.5 people make up a household. Home Price Growth: This refers to the changing market values of homes that people want to buy. Savings and Equity: This includes any disposable income you’ve managed to save after taxes, plus the equity you have in your current home. Financing: This looks at how much mortgage you can get based on your income (what you can afford in payments) and interest rates (how much those payments will be). Job availability is also key, as having a job is essential for qualifying for a mortgage. Population Growth in Alberta Alberta’s population usually keeps growing, but the rate of that growth is what really matters. If growth slows down compared to previous years, there’s less pressure for prices to rise. After a bit of a slowdown in 2020, Alberta is bouncing back nicely, making up for the pandemic pause. While 2023’s growth numbers might seem high, they fit well within the long-term trends, especially when considering the low growth during COVID. Plus, Canada has set ambitious immigration targets, and it looks like those were met in 2022. However, it’s interesting to note that full-time job growth hasn't kept pace with population growth. Changes in Home Prices When prices rise, it can make homes less affordable, which in turn limits the number of buyers in the market. This can create a bit of a catch-22: higher prices can actually put downward pressure on them, especially for first-time buyers looking for entry-level options. A general guideline is that homeownership costs become a stretch when they exceed 40% of household income. According to RBC Royal Bank, in Calgary, these costs were about 39% of the median income, while in Edmonton, they were 29%. Overall, Alberta's home prices seem to be aligned with long-term economic trends. Savings and Equity Insights Equity: Existing homeowners have seen their property values rise, giving them more equity to work with when purchasing a new home. Although there’s been a recent softening in the market, it hasn’t significantly affected most homeowners’ equity. Condo-to-House Price Gap: A large gap between condo and house prices means that condo owners wanting to upgrade to a detached home need to save more and secure larger mortgages. A smaller price gap would make it easier for those condo owners to make the leap. Lately, this gap has widened quite a bit. Savings: With inflation outpacing income growth, everyday items are costing more, but paychecks aren’t increasing much. If this trend continues, many Canadians might deplete their savings or even start accumulating debt to cover daily expenses. Financing and Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates: Since 2020, mortgage rates have been climbing. While they’re currently in the mid-range compared to the last 30 years, they’re the highest we’ve seen since before the 2007 financial crisis. Rates often move in sync with bond rates, influencing overall affordability in the housing market.

"But at the end of the day, values are going up faster than the interest rate savings. For Edmonton's market, our advice is don't wait until rates drop to enter the market" The Bank of Canada has cut its interest rate to 4.25 per cent and experts are saying Edmonton is currently a seller's market. Photo by Peter J. Thompson /Postmedia The Bank of Canada’s latest cut to its key interest rate — the agency’s third consecutive cut since June to 4.25 per cent — has raised questions about how the move might affect Edmonton’s housing market. John Carter, a broker and owner at Re/Max River City, sat down with Postmedia to discuss what buyers and sellers should expect and which areas of the market are doing well. The interview has been edited for length and clarity. What does the rate cut mean for people in Edmonton looking to buy or sell?  For the most part, it’s adding consumer confidence. People feel that rates are moving in the right direction now and they are more optimistic. Our values are going up largely driven by the amount of Ontarians moving here and investing in real estate in Edmonton. There’s more people and more demand than there is supply of properties, so we’re building a lot of new homes and that’s going to start to help meet the supply. But at the end of the day, values are going up faster than the interest rate savings. For Edmonton’s market, our advice is don’t wait until rates drop to enter the market. Each little rate drop that we’re seeing starts to have certain buyers come off the shelf that are now able to enter the market. But sometimes they’re then having to lower their expectations about what they can buy because the values have gone up, but it adds more demand. Your report said Edmonton is currently a seller’s market. What does that mean for sellers right now? The biggest challenge for most sellers is if they still need a place to live. There’s a lot of inventory that we call “shadow inventory” that’s sort of locked up right now because the owner of the property wants to sell but it’s not serving their needs anymore. They can’t sell it yet because they need to buy something and they’re waiting for the property to buy before they’ll sell.   Homes and the city skyline is seen from the Griesbach neighbourhood in Edmonton on April 2, 2019. Postmedia, file Photo by Ian Kucerak /Postmedia   So it’s really important to use a realtor to help navigate that. What we call buying backwards, if you get your qualification in order with the mortgage person, to know if you’re able to buy the new place without having to sell the old place or structuring the deal accordingly.   Low-end condos are selling very well. Stuff that people have been sitting on and unable to sell in some cases for more than 10 years, they sell really fast and a lot of investors are buying them, or people are buying them as a starter property.   The amount of new construction that’s happening because the City of Edmonton did a big bylaw change, that’s quite progressive. There’s a ton of new product under construction and that’s what buyers want.   Once the properties are built, then they’re selling their older property and they’re moving up and you see a lot of it is couples and families and lifestyles have changed. It’s still that post-pandemic (trend), they want a home gym, a home office, green space and a yard, close to good schools and all those kinds of amenities.   The perimeters of Edmonton are where there’s the most demand right now because of Anthony Henday Drive. We’re actually seeing the most sales volume in the $400,000 to $500,000 price point, even $350,000 to $500,000, because you can get some attached-style new construction product or a duplex townhouse style for brand new.   But in those periphery areas in the $500,000 to $800,000 range, what we’re seeing is that price point bumps up a little bit as rates go down. All of a sudden you’ll start seeing the average go up of what people can afford and what they’re buying.   What is inventory like in Edmonton for those searching for a home? Is it challenging?   It’s very segmented by age, product type and price. If you’re buying in the $600,000 to $1 million range and you want 10 years older or more, it’s a buyer’s market.   Anything under a half million dollars is competitive, usually multiple offers and that’s where usually the Ontario buyer is willing to pay more and so local buyers do lose. When there’s an Ontario buyer, 90 per cent of the time they win in a multiple-offer (scenario).   The other side of the market is our luxury market — the vast majority of properties selling are between $1 million and $2 million. You get a lot of houses in a great location with a large yard for brand new.

A for sale sign outside a residential property on Bagot Street in March 2024.Santana Bellantoni/GuelphToday file photo   Things are looking up for the real estate market in Guelph, according to local experts. Or, at least balanced. The Guelph & District Association of Realtors released its fall 2024 real estate market outlook, and is projecting a steady and improving market, fuelled in particular by recent interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and unemployment rates well below the national average. In a press release, GDAR said the Bank of Canada lowered the benchmark interest rate to 4.25 per cent, which is “expected to stimulate local housing activity as borrowing costs decrease.”  GDAR President Dillon Fraser believes the recent rate cut is likely to bring more buyers into the market, especially first-time homebuyers who couldn’t afford to before.  "With lower mortgage rates, we anticipate more demand for properties in Guelph and surrounding areas, contributing to a more active fall market,” he said. There were a total of 342 homes sold through the MLS System of GDAR in July 2024, up by nearly nine per cent from July 2023.  Price-wise though, don’t expect too much change. The average price of homes sold throughout July was $892,453, with a gain of 0.6 per cent from July 2023.  “We don’t have a crystal ball, of course, but we’re sitting on more inventory than we were back in COVID times. As long as we can continue to maintain that level of inventory (or better yet, increase it), we’ll be able to keep prices in check. But for the time being, it doesn’t seem as though things are going off the rails in the short-term,” Fraser said.  In the meantime, he said we’re in “a sweet spot for buyers and sellers.” “Houses are on the market a little bit longer, and so it’s not as rushed for a buyer as it was (during the pandemic). At the same time, houses are still selling. People have more options.” In other words, it’s a balanced market right now, which is good especially for those who are both buying and selling. But there is still a risk of volatility if the amount of inventory doesn’t keep up with demand.  “That’s why we’re continuing to try to encourage the city to make policy decisions that will foster more growth in terms of homes for people,” he said. “COVID really highlighted the fact that we haven’t been building to the degree that we were back 30 years ago.” However, there is significantly more inventory right now when it comes to apartment-style condos compared to detached homes, because condos have been selling much slower post-pandemic.  This can be beneficial for first-time home buyers, he said, since it gives them more options.